Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Alternate realities

In defense of this season's disaster, some Tech fans have found it necessary to apply dubious tactics in shielding their beloved Coach Johnson from criticism. Among the more ridiculous has been their illustration of the fact that Tech finished with the same 6-7 record as rival UGA, despite not having the same "4 and 5 star" talent. This has also been used somehow as evidence that Tech doesn't "need" that kind of talent to be a great program, despite UGA's 9 wins over Tech in the last 10.

Obviously such claims ignore the reality that UGA plays in arguably the nation's toughest conference, while Tech plays in a second-rate league comprised mostly of "academic" and "basketball" schools. To this effect have I argued that Tech's "average" 6-7 record in the ACC is akin to a 3-9 debacle playing in a "real" conference.

I thought it would be interesting then to examine how Tech may have fared playing UGA's schedule. The following results were ascertained by using the "predictor" rating published by Jeff Sagarin. Let's take a look:


OpponentPredictorMarginResult
Louisiana-Lafayette50.52+21.86W
@South Carolina83.35-16.97L
Arkansas87.09-14.71L
@Mississippi St83.00-16.62L
@Colorado66.84-0.46L
Tennessee74.31-1.93L
Vanderbilt58.06+14.32W
@Kentucky69.45-3.07L
Florida*82.38-13L
Idaho St40.15+32.13W
@Auburn93.56-27.18L
@GeorgiaN/A-8L
Central Florida*77.57-8.19L

*neutral site game
Georgia Tech's predictor rating = 69.38
3 points added for home field advantage


So 3-10, with wins over La-Lafayette, Vandy, and Idaho State. Sounds about right. By the way, Georgia Southern gained a spot on Tech in the final Sagarin ratings but failed to overtake the Jackets, placing two notches behind at 72nd.

Better luck next year Coach Monken!

5 comments:

  1. And in an alternate reality Hitler took over the world. What does this prove? Absolutely nothing. You can argue theoreticals all day long about anything on earth. Find it hilarious that you and your boy Wrex post twitter comments at almost the exact same time.

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  2. Are you going to start harassing the DE on twitter about switching from Notre Dame to GT? How will you spin that one? How Notre Dame sucks? Or how you give him one year before leaving? Or how his pro chances will be hurt (when in fact they won't...especially by being coached by a former pro d-coord)? I can't WAIT for this one. You and ol wrex have such an amazing life to write this trash. Then you only publish that comments that suit your needs.

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  3. Seriously, the logic here is so fundamentally unsound that it makes it a total joke.

    Did we win at UNC this year?

    Why even play the games at all if the computer can give us the result?

    And what's with the "real conference" nonsense? Is the ACC a pretend conference? Hasn't the conference won four straight against the mighty SEC in in bowl games?

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  4. Yes, it totally doesn't make sense to do it this way, since computer rankings play no part whatsoever in how we determine the champion. Let's just schedule these games for next year, with all the same personnel, and let everyone prove it on the field like you suggest. That should be easily arranged, should it not?

    And you're right, the logic is totally unsound. It would be brash to assume we'd beat Vanderbilt so easily after how tough they played our ACC "Championship" team last season. It should probably be 2-11.

    I'll have to rethink this Sagarin flimflam now. Thanks for the heads up!

    By the way, how many national titles in a row has the SEC won? What professional media sources can you cite that claim ACC football is on par with SEC football? Anyone who exhibits this level of blindness must be one of the ringleaders of the CPJ slurper brigade. Time to stop being part of The Problem my friend!

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  5. To the fellow whose comment I deleted for vulgarity:

    I am aware that Tech ultimately won the Vanderbilt game by 20+ points. However Vandy actually held a lead in the 3rd quarter, and the game was still in doubt going into the 4th. You would think what with the way, without the four juniors, Tech struggled against teams like Kansas, Wake, and Duke, Vanderbilt most certainly would have had a legitimate chance to win against the 2010 Yellow Jackets.

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