Showing posts with label sagarin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sagarin. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Alternate realities

In defense of this season's disaster, some Tech fans have found it necessary to apply dubious tactics in shielding their beloved Coach Johnson from criticism. Among the more ridiculous has been their illustration of the fact that Tech finished with the same 6-7 record as rival UGA, despite not having the same "4 and 5 star" talent. This has also been used somehow as evidence that Tech doesn't "need" that kind of talent to be a great program, despite UGA's 9 wins over Tech in the last 10.

Obviously such claims ignore the reality that UGA plays in arguably the nation's toughest conference, while Tech plays in a second-rate league comprised mostly of "academic" and "basketball" schools. To this effect have I argued that Tech's "average" 6-7 record in the ACC is akin to a 3-9 debacle playing in a "real" conference.

I thought it would be interesting then to examine how Tech may have fared playing UGA's schedule. The following results were ascertained by using the "predictor" rating published by Jeff Sagarin. Let's take a look:


OpponentPredictorMarginResult
Louisiana-Lafayette50.52+21.86W
@South Carolina83.35-16.97L
Arkansas87.09-14.71L
@Mississippi St83.00-16.62L
@Colorado66.84-0.46L
Tennessee74.31-1.93L
Vanderbilt58.06+14.32W
@Kentucky69.45-3.07L
Florida*82.38-13L
Idaho St40.15+32.13W
@Auburn93.56-27.18L
@GeorgiaN/A-8L
Central Florida*77.57-8.19L

*neutral site game
Georgia Tech's predictor rating = 69.38
3 points added for home field advantage


So 3-10, with wins over La-Lafayette, Vandy, and Idaho State. Sounds about right. By the way, Georgia Southern gained a spot on Tech in the final Sagarin ratings but failed to overtake the Jackets, placing two notches behind at 72nd.

Better luck next year Coach Monken!